Decisive wins in five states could help Bernie Sanders win the Democratic nomination even with Hillary Clinton's lead after Ohio and Florida.
The five states, wach one with more than 100 Democratic delegates, are California (475 pledged delegates); New York (247); Pennsylvania (189); Jersey (126); and Washington (101).
California is, of course, the biggest contest, with 475 pledged delegates. In 2008 Hillary Clinton won the state primary against Barack Obama with a little over 8% of the vote. This means Bernie Sanders could potentially win California if he makes a strong push to court Latino voters.
By the way; according to Real Clear Politics, Hillary Clinton has an 11 point lead over Bernie Sanders. But that's an old poll from June 2015, before Bernie Sanders became a phenomenon. So her lead could very well be gone by now.
Next in line is New York, with 247 pledged delegates. Hillary Clinton won the state in 2008 with 17.05% of the vote, so there is a strong chance she will win it again. However, there are no recent polls to confirm that.
Of the remaining five states that could give Sanders the chance to win the nomination, only New Jersey could go to Clinton. The rest of them could go to Bernie Sanders if we consider the 2008 results and the characteristcs of the states lost by Hillary.
It should be noted, by the way, that in 2008 Hillary Clinton won Ohio, Florida and California, and yet she lost the nomination to Barack Obama. So to claim that the race is "effectively over", as Hillary Clinton supporters are saying now, is a mistake. Bernie Sanders could upsate Hillary Clinton again.
But, in order to win the race, Bernie Sanders supporters in California, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Washington will have to mobilize double their efforts to convince people that Sanders is the best choice not just because of his proposals, but also because statistically he could get enough voters to the polls to win Congress for the Democrats. Hillary Clinton can't. That means Bernie Sanders could have Congress on his side and actually get his proposals passed by the Senate and the House. With Hillary, the gridlock in Congress would continue.
- Victor Hernandez is a political blogger and the author of Love Robots, a sci-fi novel dealing with political and social issues using real data (available on ebook here: http://amzn.to/1TEx12l and paperback here: http://amzn.to/1P6a2pa). He supports Bernie Sanders for the Democratic nomination and for the Presidency.
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