miércoles, 16 de marzo de 2016

#StillSanders: DATA shows it's not over yet for Bernie Sanders; In fact, it's only starting (cc @mmflint)

By Victor Hernandez

Hillary Clinton's PAC said after last Tuesday's that the Ohio and Florida primaries defined the race for the Democratic nomination and therefore the race was pretty much over.

Almost immediately, the media repeated the same thing, claiming it was pretty much over for Bernie Sanders.

But historical data shows it's not over for Bernie Sanders. In fact, it's only starting.

First of all, let's get this out of the way: Hillary Clinto won Ohio and Florida in 2008 and yet Barack Obama defeated her. Lets take a look at the primary results from 2008 and then the ones from 2016:

The first pattern that emerges from the result is this: Hillary Clinton is winning in states with the following charcteristics:

1. She won the state in 2008.

2. Barack Obama won the state but had a lead of less than 10% in the 2008 primaries.

3. The state has a large African American population.

The states won by Bernie Sanders have the following characteristcs:

1. Barack Obama won the state in 2008 except for Michigan, New Hampshire and Oklahoma.

2. Barack Obama won the state with a lead of over 34% except for Vermont, which Obama won with a 20.78% lead, but it's Sander's home state.

3. Hillary won in 2008 by less than 24% and the state has a smaller African American population.

Which suggests Bernie Sanders could potentially win the following states:

New Mexico
North Dakota
South Dakota
US Virgin Islands
Washington DC

Clinton, on the other hand, could win the following races fairly easily:

New Jersey
New York
Puerto Rico
Rhode Island
West Virginia

The key, of course, will be California. In 2008 Hillary Clinton won California by an 8.31% lead against Barack Obama. It's not a huge lead, so it isn't impossible for Bernie Sanders to win the state, specially given the fact that California is increasingly leaning more progressive.

So those who think it's over for Bernie Sanders should think again. It's nowhere near over for Bernie. In fact it's just starting.

- Victor Hernandez is a political blogger and the author of Love Robots, a sci-fi novel dealing with political and social issues using real data (available on ebook here: http://amzn.to/1TEx12l and paperback here: http://amzn.to/1P6a2pa). He supports Bernie Sanders for the Democratic  nomination and for the Presidency.

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